You:

For this fictional Cedar capacity planning review, prepare a concise capacity-first working note using only the selected engagement's admitted evidence. Identify the latest relevant source/version, available hours, effort per job, confirmed demand and provisional demand; distinguish current values from superseded ones. Show the arithmetic and compare confirmed demand with the full planning case. Then give the reviewer's next question and a cautious two-sentence draft conclusion. Cite the actual sources. Do not treat estimated effort as measured delivery, promise capacity, approve the report, or change saved records. If figures or currentness cannot be established, say so rather than infer them.

From the selected engagement records

Capacity-first working note (concise)
Latest relevant sources and versions: capacity CSV v3 (02-capacity.csv, version 3) for available hours; planning note v3 (03-planning-note.txt, version 3) for reconciled availability and demand; forecast CSV v1 (01-forecast.csv, version 1) for recorded planning jobs. (Sources: E1-SRC-02, E1-SRC-03, E1-SRC-01.)
Current values (per admitted sources):
Available hours: 340 hours (capacity CSV v3; planning note confirms 340 and supersedes earlier 320 and 360) (E1-SRC-02; E1-SRC-03).
Estimated effort per job: 5 hours per job (recorded in capacity file and noted as unvalidated) (E1-SRC-02; E1-SRC-04).
Confirmed demand: 72 jobs (planning note separates confirmed demand) (E1-SRC-03).
Provisional demand: 12 jobs (provisional; planning total 84 = 72 + 12) (E1-SRC-03; E1-SRC-01).
Superseded values: earlier availability figures 320 and 360 hours are explicitly replaced by the 340-hour value in the planning note and should be treated as historical, not current (E1-SRC-03).
Arithmetic (modelled capacity, using same-week inputs):
Modelled capacity = available_hours / estimated_hours_per_job = 340 / 5 = 68 jobs (E1-CALC; E1-SRC-02).
Comparison:
Confirmed demand (72) vs modelled capacity (68): shortfall of 4 jobs.
Full planning case (72 confirmed + 12 provisional = 84) vs modelled capacity (68): shortfall of 16 jobs.
Notes: estimated hours per job is unvalidated; provisional release dates and job-level effort remain unconfirmed (E1-SRC-03; E1-SRC-04; E1-REPORT).

Reviewer’s next question:

Which specific jobs are provisional and what are their proposed release dates and job-level effort estimates (so we can test sensitivity to job mix and timing)? (E1-SRC-03)

Draft conclusion (two cautious sentences):

Under the current, unvalidated 5-hrs-per-job estimate and the reconciled 340 available hours, the arithmetic model shows capacity for 68 jobs, leaving a 4-job shortfall against confirmed demand and a 16-job shortfall against the full planning case. Validate hours-per-job, job mix and provisional release dates before using these numbers for any operational commitments or staffing decisions (E1-SRC-02; E1-SRC-03; E1-SRC-04; E1-REPORT).
SOURCES
E1-SRC-02 Cedar Review · fictional UI walkthrough · Capacity planning review · 02-capacity.csv
E1-SRC-03 Cedar Review · fictional UI walkthrough · Capacity planning review · 03-planning-note.txt
E1-SRC-01 Cedar Review · fictional UI walkthrough · Capacity planning review · 01-forecast.csv
E1-SRC-04 Cedar Review · fictional UI walkthrough · Capacity planning review · 04-method-note.md
E1-CALC Cedar Review · fictional UI walkthrough · Capacity planning review · Deterministic calculation from admitted files
E1-REPORT Cedar Review · fictional UI walkthrough · Capacity planning review · Working report v7 (approval verified)
OPEN
Cedar Review · fictional UI walkthrough · Evidence
Cedar Review · fictional UI walkthrough · Review
Answered 28 Oct, 04:16 pm
You:

Now apply an evidence-first review approach to exactly the same fictional Cedar case and facts. This is an explicit instruction for this conversation, not a change to the saved firm method. Keep the 340/5=68 arithmetic, 72 confirmed jobs and 12 provisional jobs unchanged. Lead with what must be validated before anyone commits: distinguish reconciled historical figures from a current contradiction; explain the unvalidated effort estimate, job mix and release-date uncertainty. Give three prioritised checks, what each would resolve, and a cautious two-sentence draft conclusion. Cite admitted sources. Do not invent measured timings, causal findings or new data; do not approve or modify the saved report.

From the selected engagement records

Evidence-first review — Cedar capacity planning (same facts retained)

Lead: mandatory validations before any commitment

Confirm the reconciled current available-hours figure (340) is the operative value and not a lingering contradictory record: planning note v3 states 340 and explicitly replaces earlier 320 and 360 figures (E1-SRC-03). The capacity CSV v3 records 340 hours (E1-SRC-02). Treat the older numbers as superseded historical values unless evidence shows otherwise (E1-SRC-03).
Validate the estimated effort per job (5 hours) because it is explicitly unvalidated in the admitted materials; the arithmetic model (340 / 5 = 68) depends on this estimate and does not constitute measured delivery capability (E1-SRC-02; E1-SRC-04; E1-CALC).
Resolve job mix and release-date uncertainty: confirmed demand (72 jobs) and 12 provisional jobs (planning total 84) are separated in the planning note, but provisional release dates and job-level effort remain unconfirmed — this affects whether provisional work should be scheduled (E1-SRC-03; E1-SRC-01).

Keep the arithmetic and counts unchanged: modelled capacity = 340 / 5 = 68 jobs; confirmed demand = 72 jobs; provisional = 12 jobs (planning total 84) (E1-CALC; E1-SRC-02; E1-SRC-03).

Three prioritized checks (in order)
Check: empirical validation of hours-per-job
What it would resolve: confirms whether 5 hours per job is a reasonable operational estimate or requires adjustment; directly changes the modelled capacity (E1-SRC-02; E1-SRC-04).
Check: authoritative confirmation that 340 hours is the current, reconciled available capacity for the target week
What it would resolve: removes the risk of acting on a superseded figure (320 or 360) and ensures supply-side planning uses the single operative input (E1-SRC-03; E1-SRC-02).
Check: verification of provisional jobs’ release dates and job-level scope/job-mix
What it would resolve: determines whether the 12 provisional jobs should be treated as schedulable in the target week or kept separate; clarifies if job mix would change average effort per job (E1-SRC-03; E1-SRC-01).

Cautious two-sentence draft conclusion

Under the admitted inputs the arithmetic model gives 68 modelled jobs (340 hours / 5 hours per job) versus 72 confirmed jobs and 84 in the planning case, implying a shortfall of 4 for confirmed demand and 16 for the full planning case. Before any operational commitment, validate the hours-per-job estimate, confirm 340 as the authoritative available-hours figure, and verify provisional release dates and job mix so the model reflects supported evidence rather than unvalidated assumptions (E1-SRC-02; E1-SRC-03; E1-SRC-04; E1-CALC).

SOURCES
E1-SRC-02 Cedar Review · fictional UI walkthrough · Capacity planning review · 02-capacity.csv
E1-SRC-03 Cedar Review · fictional UI walkthrough · Capacity planning review · 03-planning-note.txt
E1-SRC-04 Cedar Review · fictional UI walkthrough · Capacity planning review · 04-method-note.md
E1-SRC-01 Cedar Review · fictional UI walkthrough · Capacity planning review · 01-forecast.csv
E1-CALC Cedar Review · fictional UI walkthrough · Capacity planning review · Deterministic calculation from admitted files
OPEN
Cedar Review · fictional UI walkthrough · Evidence
Cedar Review · fictional UI walkthrough · Analysis
Answered 28 Oct, 04:17 pm