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Decision Room · Fictional engagement DR01

One client decision, finished and ready to test.

Fernhill Advisory has to tell Calder Supply how to meet 360 orders a week when the current depot handles 300. Three ways to add capacity, one four-week cash ceiling, two trained coordinators to allocate. Read the deck as the client would. Then change the numbers it rests on and watch the candidate, the worksheet, the report and the next actions move together.

Explore the decision

Fictional firm, client and figures. Narrative prepared with AI assistance; reviewer revision is scripted. Every figure is computed here from the fixed hypothetical inputs in the source register. Not live AI, not a client result, not investment advice.

Model candidate for review: Improve current depot · A$1,320 over four weeks · capacity 360 a weekScenario d360-n2-b8000-available · dr01-m1
01 / Client decision deck

The second-depot decision.

Deck v2 · issued 2026-10-06 in this fiction · Fernhill Advisory for Calder Supply · Narrative prepared with AI assistance; figures computed here. Reviewer revision is scripted.

The question01 / 08

How could Calder cover 360 orders a week?

Current scenario demand
360

orders / week · editable assumption

Existing depot capacity
300

orders / week · S01, S03

Unmet with no change
60

orders / week · computed here

One four-week period. Three illustrative options. A real decision stays with the commercial director.

Read the reasoning

Calder Supply handles 300 orders a week. The synthetic basis says about 360 are coming (S02). There are three ways to add capacity (S01), one four-week cash ceiling and two trained coordinators to allocate (S05). This deck answers two things: which option is a numerical fit under fixed assumptions, and what has to be verified before anyone spends.

Fictional DR01 · AI-assisted narrative · deterministic browser arithmetic

The current constraint02 / 08

Capacity is the first constraint to clear.

Existing depot300 / week
60 orders / week unmet
Improve current depot360 / week
0 orders / week unmet
Partner overflow420 / week
0 orders / week unmet
Second depot450 / week
0 orders / week unmet

Demand rule: 360 orders / week. Bars compare weekly capacity, not service quality or operational readiness.

Read the reasoning

At 300 orders a week the depot is full. Every order above 300 is handled by added capacity or goes unmet. Under your scenario, 60 orders a week would go unmet with no change. The constraint is capacity; cash and people limit how it can be added.

Fictional DR01 · AI-assisted narrative · deterministic browser arithmetic

Three ways to add capacity03 / 08

Compare the cash required to cover demand.

OptionCapacity / weekFour-week cashNumerical fit
Improve current depot360A$1,320Meets both · candidate
Partner overflow420A$3,840Meets both
Second depot450A$9,240Does not fit

2 trained allocations · A$8,000 four-week ceiling. Fit means the two numerical constraints only.

Read the reasoning

Improve the current depot: +30 a week per coordinator, lowest fixed cash, lowest cash per extra order. Partner overflow: +60 per coordinator, capped at +120, moderate fixed cash, highest cash per extra order. Second depot: +75 per coordinator, capped at +225, highest fixed cash, low cash per extra order. At 360 orders and 2 coordinators: Improve current depot: capacity 360 orders/week; handled 360; unmet 0; four-week cash A$1,320; Meets both numerical constraints. Partner overflow: capacity 420 orders/week; handled 360; unmet 0; four-week cash A$3,840; Meets both numerical constraints. Second depot: capacity 450 orders/week; handled 360; unmet 0; four-week cash A$9,240; Cash A$9,240 exceeds the ceiling A$8,000.

Fictional DR01 · AI-assisted narrative · deterministic browser arithmetic

The model candidate04 / 08

Improve current depot

Four-week incremental cash
A$1,320
Current demand
360

orders / week

Candidate capacity
360

orders / week

Numerical fit is not viability. Lease, capital, setup, other staffing, opportunity cost, service quality, readiness, variability and real demand remain outside the model.

Read the reasoning

Model candidate for review: Improve current depot · A$1,320 over four weeks · capacity 360 a week. Candidate means it meets demand and the cash ceiling in this model, under fixed assumptions. It does not mean viable. Lease, capital and setup costs; other staffing and opportunity cost; service quality; partner and depot readiness; demand variability and real demand evidence are outside the model. Revenue, margin and ROI are not calculated. A real professional decision remains human-owned.

Fictional DR01 · AI-assisted narrative · deterministic browser arithmetic

What changes when the numbers change05 / 08

The issued result holds at the baseline.

Issued baseline · 360 / 2 / A$8,000
Improve current depot

A$1,320 / four weeks · capacity 360 / week

Current · 360 / 2 / A$8,000
Improve current depot

A$1,320 / four weeks · capacity 360 / week

Orders / allocations / ceilingModel result
400 / 2 / A$8,000Partner overflow · A$4,800
480 / 3 / A$12,000Second depot · A$9,720
600 / 2 / A$8,000No fit · capacity binds for all

Worked scenarios are conditional arithmetic, not forecasts. Missing demand basis always suppresses selection.

Read the reasoning

Issued baseline 360 · 2 · A$8,000: improve the current depot at A$1,320. At 400 orders the current depot falls 40 short and partner overflow becomes the candidate at A$4,800. At 480 orders with three coordinators and A$12,000, only the second depot covers demand, at A$9,720. At 600 orders with two coordinators nothing fits: capacity binds for every option. Without a demand basis, no candidate is selected. Your scenario against the baseline: Issued baseline: Model candidate for review: Improve current depot · A$1,320 over four weeks · capacity 360 a week. Current scenario: Model candidate for review: Improve current depot · A$1,320 over four weeks · capacity 360 a week. Demand 360 → 360; allocations 2 → 2; four-week ceiling A$8,000 → A$8,000; basis available → available.

Fictional DR01 · AI-assisted narrative · deterministic browser arithmetic

Next actions, with owners06 / 08

Verification first. Spend after.

Priority taskOwner
Verify the demand basis with actual order history for the periodOperations lead with finance lead
Confirm coordinator allocations and their current dutiesOperations lead
Confirm the four-week incremental cash ceilingFinance lead

Prioritised checks, with fictional role owners. Full dependencies and completion evidence are in Next actions; no meeting or spend is scheduled here.

Read the reasoning

Verify the demand basis with actual order history for the period — Operations lead with finance lead. First: verify before relying on the model. Completion: Four weeks of order counts with source and date. Confirm coordinator allocations and their current duties — Operations lead. Required before a real decision. Completion: Named allocations and backfill, signed by the operations lead. Confirm the four-week incremental cash ceiling — Finance lead. Required before a real decision. Completion: Written ceiling for the period. Obtain partner overflow terms and readiness — Partner liaison. Outside the model; check if this option is pursued. Completion: Carrier terms, capacity confirmation, start date. Scope second-depot lease, capital, setup and timing — Depot project owner. Outside the model; check if this option is pursued. Completion: Costed readiness note. Define the service-quality check for any added capacity — Operations lead. Required before a real decision. Completion: Agreed measure and threshold. Decision meeting on the verified basis — Commercial director. Last: decide only on a verified basis. Completion: Recorded decision. Verification first; spend after.

Fictional DR01 · AI-assisted narrative · deterministic browser arithmetic

What the reviewer changed, and why07 / 08

Replace a viability claim with a bounded conclusion.

Before · v1, withdrawn
The model shows the current depot improvement is viable.
After · v2, issued baseline
The current depot improvement is the lowest-cash option that meets demand and the ceiling in this model. Viability needs the excluded costs and readiness checks.

A candidate is not viability.

Scripted reviewer revision for the issued deck. No real reviewer or live review; changing a control is not a review.

Read the reasoning

Scripted reviewer revision for the issued deck, not a live review. The return on deck v1 on 2026-10-02 removed a viability claim, an unsupported low-risk description of partner overflow and a broad growth claim about the second depot. Read the full before/after record in What changed. A control change in the room is not a review.

Fictional DR01 · AI-assisted narrative · deterministic browser arithmetic

Sources, formulas and the next step08 / 08

Keep the source basis and working with the decision.

SourceAssumption record
S01Question brief
S02Synthetic demand basis
S03Capacity and coordinator assumption table
S04Four-week cash table
S05Budget and staff constraints
S06Excluded readiness and cost unknowns
Capacity · S03
Current: 300 + 30N; partner: 300 + min(120, 60N); second depot: 300 + min(225, 75N)
Working · S02–S05
handled = min(D, capacity); unmet = max(0, D − capacity); extra = max(0, handled − 300); cash = fixed + 4 × extra × unit

Six invented assumption records. Fixed source facts stay distinct from editable inputs and derived figures.

Read the reasoning

S01 to S06 are invented assumption records. Handled = min(demand, capacity); unmet = max(0, demand − capacity); extra = max(0, handled − 300); cash = fixed + 4 × extra × unit. Deck v1 2026-10-01, return 2026-10-02, v2 issued 2026-10-06. Next step for Calder: commission the verification actions, then decide. Fictional throughout.

Fictional DR01 · AI-assisted narrative · deterministic browser arithmetic

02 / Scenario worksheet

Every figure shows its working.

Three options, four formulas, one ceiling. Each row carries its unit, its basis and its source ID.

Improve current depot

Capacity 360 / demand 360 orders a week

Cash A$1,320 / ceiling A$8,000

Meets both numerical constraints

Partner overflow

Capacity 420 / demand 360 orders a week

Cash A$3,840 / ceiling A$8,000

Meets both numerical constraints

Second depot

Capacity 450 / demand 360 orders a week

Cash A$9,240 / ceiling A$8,000

Cash A$9,240 exceeds the ceiling A$8,000

Bars show capacity and cash; the ink rule marks demand and the ceiling. The table carries the same numbers.

Computed here from fixed inputs · d360-n2-b8000-available
OptionCapacityHandledUnmetFour-week cashNumerical fit
Improve current depot3603600A$1,320Meets both constraints · Candidate for review
Partner overflow4203600A$3,840Meets both constraints
Second depot4503600A$9,240Does not fit
Inspect all inputs, constants, formulas and evaluated rows
LineValueUnitBasisFormulaSource
Weekly orders D360orders/weekeditable input; source datum 360integer 240–600S02
Coordinator allocations N2trained-person allocationseditable input; source datum 2integer 0–4S03, S05
Four-week cash ceiling B8000AUD/four weekseditable input; source datum 8000integer 0–20000S05
Demand basisavailable (synthetic)statusscenario togglemissing suppresses candidate selectionS02
Existing capacity300orders/weekconstantfixedS01, S03
Planning period4weeksconstantnot calendar monthS04, S05
Unmet with no change60orders/weekderivedmax(0, D − 300)S01, S02
Improve current depot: capacity per allocation30orders/week/allocationconstantfixedS03
Improve current depot: added capacity capno added cap within N boundsorders/weekconstantfixedS03
Improve current depot: fixed cash1200AUD/four weeksconstantfixedS04
Improve current depot: unit cash0.5AUD/extra orderconstantfixedS04
Improve current depot: capacity360orders/weekderived300 + 30 × NS03
Improve current depot: handled360orders/weekderivedmin(D, capacity)S02, S03
Improve current depot: unmet0orders/weekderivedmax(0, D − capacity)S02, S03
Improve current depot: extra60orders/weekderivedmax(0, handled − 300)S03, S04
Improve current depot: cash1320AUD/four weeksderivedfixed + 4 × extra × unitS04
Improve current depot: meets capacitytruebooleanderivedunmet = 0S02, S03
Improve current depot: meets cashtruebooleanderivedcash ≤ BS04, S05
Improve current depot: eligibletruebooleanderivedmeets capacity AND meets cash; numerical constraints onlyS02–S05
Partner overflow: capacity per allocation60orders/week/allocationconstantfixedS03
Partner overflow: added capacity cap120orders/weekconstantfixedS03
Partner overflow: fixed cash2400AUD/four weeksconstantfixedS04
Partner overflow: unit cash6AUD/extra orderconstantfixedS04
Partner overflow: capacity420orders/weekderived300 + min(120, 60 × N)S03
Partner overflow: handled360orders/weekderivedmin(D, capacity)S02, S03
Partner overflow: unmet0orders/weekderivedmax(0, D − capacity)S02, S03
Partner overflow: extra60orders/weekderivedmax(0, handled − 300)S03, S04
Partner overflow: cash3840AUD/four weeksderivedfixed + 4 × extra × unitS04
Partner overflow: meets capacitytruebooleanderivedunmet = 0S02, S03
Partner overflow: meets cashtruebooleanderivedcash ≤ BS04, S05
Partner overflow: eligibletruebooleanderivedmeets capacity AND meets cash; numerical constraints onlyS02–S05
Second depot: capacity per allocation75orders/week/allocationconstantfixedS03
Second depot: added capacity cap225orders/weekconstantfixedS03
Second depot: fixed cash9000AUD/four weeksconstantfixedS04
Second depot: unit cash1AUD/extra orderconstantfixedS04
Second depot: capacity450orders/weekderived300 + min(225, 75 × N)S03
Second depot: handled360orders/weekderivedmin(D, capacity)S02, S03
Second depot: unmet0orders/weekderivedmax(0, D − capacity)S02, S03
Second depot: extra60orders/weekderivedmax(0, handled − 300)S03, S04
Second depot: cash9240AUD/four weeksderivedfixed + 4 × extra × unitS04
Second depot: meets capacitytruebooleanderivedunmet = 0S02, S03
Second depot: meets cashfalsebooleanderivedcash ≤ BS04, S05
Second depot: eligiblefalsebooleanderivedmeets capacity AND meets cash; numerical constraints onlyS02–S05
03 / Readable report

The report, developed from the deck.

The same decision in prose, with exact source links. The conclusion and the next work follow your current scenario.

Question and basis

Fernhill Advisory's fictional question accepted on 2026-09-23 was how Calder could meet about 360 orders a week with a 300-order depot, within four-week incremental cash and trained coordinator allocations. The issued source basis remains 360 orders, two allocations and A$8,000. Your current scenario uses 360 orders/week, 2 allocations and A$8,000 over four weeks. Edited values are assumptions; they never overwrite sources. Demand basis: available, but synthetic and not verified real demand.

Capacity and cash trade-offs

Without change, 60 orders/week would go unmet. Capacity grows only with available trained coordinator allocations, and partner and second-depot capacity stop at their caps. Cash is fixed incremental cash plus four weeks of extra orders handled above 300; it is not a calendar-month cost or a complete project budget. Improve current depot: capacity 360 orders/week; handled 360; unmet 0; four-week cash A$1,320; Meets both numerical constraints. Partner overflow: capacity 420 orders/week; handled 360; unmet 0; four-week cash A$3,840; Meets both numerical constraints. Second depot: capacity 450 orders/week; handled 360; unmet 0; four-week cash A$9,240; Cash A$9,240 exceeds the ceiling A$8,000.

Conclusion under the current assumptions

Model candidate for review: Improve current depot · A$1,320 over four weeks · capacity 360 a week. Selection uses the lowest four-week cash among options meeting both numerical constraints. All lowest-cash ties remain unranked. Lease, capital and setup costs; other staffing and opportunity cost; service quality; partner and depot readiness; demand variability and real demand evidence are outside the model. Revenue, margin and ROI are not calculated. A real professional decision remains human-owned.

Sensitivity and revision

Issued baseline: Model candidate for review: Improve current depot · A$1,320 over four weeks · capacity 360 a week. Current scenario: Model candidate for review: Improve current depot · A$1,320 over four weeks · capacity 360 a week. Demand 360 → 360; allocations 2 → 2; four-week ceiling A$8,000 → A$8,000; basis available → available.

Next work and decision ownership

Verify the demand basis with actual order history for the period — Operations lead with finance lead. First: verify before relying on the model. Completion: Four weeks of order counts with source and date. Confirm coordinator allocations and their current duties — Operations lead. Required before a real decision. Completion: Named allocations and backfill, signed by the operations lead. Confirm the four-week incremental cash ceiling — Finance lead. Required before a real decision. Completion: Written ceiling for the period. Obtain partner overflow terms and readiness — Partner liaison. Outside the model; check if this option is pursued. Completion: Carrier terms, capacity confirmation, start date. Scope second-depot lease, capital, setup and timing — Depot project owner. Outside the model; check if this option is pursued. Completion: Costed readiness note. Define the service-quality check for any added capacity — Operations lead. Required before a real decision. Completion: Agreed measure and threshold. Decision meeting on the verified basis — Commercial director. Last: decide only on a verified basis. Completion: Recorded decision. The commercial director owns the eventual decision on verified evidence. No meeting, spend, review approval or client acceptance is created by this page. The issued reviewer revision is scripted, and the narrative was prepared with AI assistance.

04 / Source register

Six assumption records.

Fixed IDs, dates, versions and exact passages. S02 is the synthetic demand basis; an edited demand value never overwrites it.

S01 · Fictional source

Question brief

2026-09-23 · v1 · DR01#/sources/S01/text
Current depot handles 300 orders a week. Expected weekly orders about 360. Decide within the incremental cash available over the next four weeks, using coordinators already trained. Compare improving the current depot, partner overflow and a second depot.

Used by: Slides 1, 2

S02 · Fictional source

Synthetic demand basis

2026-09-26 · v1 · DR01#/sources/S02/text
Synthetic basis for this teaching case: 360 orders a week, assumed flat across the four-week period. Not derived from any real order history. Range used for scenario testing: 240 to 600.

Used by: Demand input and bounds

S03 · Fictional source

Capacity and coordinator assumption table

2026-09-29 · v1 · DR01#/sources/S03/text
Existing capacity 300 a week. Improve current depot: +30 a week per allocated coordinator. Partner overflow: +60 per coordinator, capped at +120. Second depot: +75 per coordinator, capped at +225. Coordinator allocations available: 0 to 4; default 2.

Used by: Capacity formulas; allocations input

S04 · Fictional source

Four-week cash table

2026-09-30 · v1 · DR01#/sources/S04/text
Incremental cash over four weeks: improve current depot A$1,200 fixed plus A$0.50 per extra order; partner overflow A$2,400 fixed plus A$6 per extra order; second depot A$9,000 fixed plus A$1 per extra order. Extra orders are orders handled above 300.

Used by: Cash formulas

S05 · Fictional source

Budget and staff constraints

2026-10-01 · v1 · DR01#/sources/S05/text
Incremental cash ceiling for the four-week planning period: A$8,000 by default; range tested A$0 to A$20,000. Two trained coordinators can be allocated by default. No new hires in this period.

Used by: Cash ceiling and allocations inputs

S06 · Fictional source

Excluded readiness and cost unknowns

2026-10-01 · v1 · DR01#/sources/S06/text
Not in the model: lease, capital and setup for a second depot; partner carrier readiness and terms; other staffing and opportunity cost; service quality; demand variability; verified demand. These must be checked before any decision.

Used by: Candidate caveats; next actions

05 / What changed

Issued baseline against your scenario.

Substantive fields only: assumptions, handled and unmet orders, cash by option, eligibility, candidate, and the next work that changes. The reviewer commentary beneath is scripted for the issued deck. Changing a control is not a review.

Baseline (issued)

Model candidate for review: Improve current depot · A$1,320 over four weeks · capacity 360 a week

d360-n2-b8000-available
Current scenario

Model candidate for review: Improve current depot · A$1,320 over four weeks · capacity 360 a week

d360-n2-b8000-available
Substantive fields · baseline → current
OptionCapacity / handled / unmet
orders per week
Four-week cashMeets both constraints
Improve current depot360 / 360 / 0
→ 360 / 360 / 0
A$1,320 → A$1,320Yes → Yes
Partner overflow420 / 360 / 0
→ 420 / 360 / 0
A$3,840 → A$3,840Yes → Yes
Second depot450 / 360 / 0
→ 450 / 360 / 0
A$9,240 → A$9,240No → No

Weekly orders (D)360 → 360

Trained coordinator allocations (N)2 → 2

Four-week cash ceiling (B)8000 → 8000

Demand basisAvailable → Available (synthetic)

Next work whose emphasis changed

The action emphasis matches the issued baseline.

Scripted reviewer revision for the issued deck

Return on deck v1, 2026-10-02. These are authored corrections in the fiction, not a real professional review or an approval of your scenario.

Slide 4

Before (v1, withdrawn)
The model shows the current depot improvement is viable.

After (v2)
The current depot improvement is the lowest-cash option that meets demand and the ceiling in this model. Viability needs the excluded costs and readiness checks.

Reason: A candidate is not viability.
Slide 3

Before (v1, withdrawn)
Partner overflow is the low-risk route.

After (v2)
Partner overflow has the highest cash per extra order and a hard cap of +120 a week. It fits a narrow band of demand.

Reason: Unsupported risk claim; show the cap.
Slide 5

Before (v1, withdrawn)
A second depot is the growth answer for Calder.

After (v2)
At 480 orders a week, three coordinator allocations and an A$12,000 four-week ceiling, the second depot is the only modeled option covering demand; lease, capital and setup remain outside the model.

Reason: Scope excludes growth and capital claims.
06 / Next actions

What has to be verified before anyone spends.

Each action has a task, a fictional role owner, the source or dependency it rests on and the evidence that completes it. The model’s exclusions are the first items on the list.

  1. Verify the demand basis with actual order history for the period

    First: verify before relying on the model

    Fictional owner
    Operations lead with finance lead
    Depends on
    S02, S06
    Completion evidence
    Four weeks of order counts with source and date
  2. Confirm coordinator allocations and their current duties

    Required before a real decision

    Fictional owner
    Operations lead
    Depends on
    S03, S05
    Completion evidence
    Named allocations and backfill, signed by the operations lead
  3. Confirm the four-week incremental cash ceiling

    Required before a real decision

    Fictional owner
    Finance lead
    Depends on
    S05
    Completion evidence
    Written ceiling for the period
  4. Obtain partner overflow terms and readiness

    Outside the model; check if this option is pursued

    Fictional owner
    Partner liaison
    Depends on
    S04, S06
    Completion evidence
    Carrier terms, capacity confirmation, start date
  5. Scope second-depot lease, capital, setup and timing

    Outside the model; check if this option is pursued

    Fictional owner
    Depot project owner
    Depends on
    S04, S06
    Completion evidence
    Costed readiness note
  6. Define the service-quality check for any added capacity

    Required before a real decision

    Fictional owner
    Operations lead
    Depends on
    S06
    Completion evidence
    Agreed measure and threshold
  7. Decision meeting on the verified basis

    Last: decide only on a verified basis

    Fictional owner
    Commercial director
    Depends on
    All above
    Completion evidence
    Recorded decision
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What this room shows, and what it cannot.

It shows a finished advisory decision with its reasoning open: the deck, the arithmetic behind every figure, the issued baseline against your scenario, the scripted reviewer corrections and the actions that come before real spend.

It cannot show whether any distributor’s demand looks like S02, or whether an option is viable. Lease, capital and setup costs; other staffing and opportunity cost; service quality; partner and depot readiness; demand variability and real demand evidence are outside the model. Revenue, margin and ROI are not calculated. A real professional decision remains human-owned. A candidate is a numerical fit under fixed assumptions, not investment advice and not a forecast. No live model, retrieval or provider runs here.

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